An empirical law of computing that has more impact than we imagine on professional audiovisual practices.
In 1965 Gordon Moore made an empirical observation, which he made public and revised in 1975. Here is its 1975 version: Every two years, at equivalent cost price, the capacity of computer tools doubles
(mainly the power of microprocessors).
In reality Moore’s law applies well beyond microprocessors. For example, if you buy in 2018 for 100€ a hard disk with a capacity of 2TB, two years later, for $100 you will have a hard disk of 4TB. And two years later, 8TB, then 16TB, 32TB... it’s exponential.
So computing powers, processing speeds, storage capacities, connection speeds... all digital activities and tools follow the same logic of exponential quantitative evolution.
Gordon Moore views his law from the perspective of economic competition. But Moore’s law is much broader, because this evolution has profound impacts on forms of production, communication and human activity in general. Even though it is possible, in technical terms, to qualify this law, even though some postulate that it has reached its end, the reality is that we are still and for a long time in an exponential rate of change in the capabilities of digital tools.
The immediate corollary of Moore’s law is that the cost of storing a video file (shared on the web for example) is halved on average every two years. Thus the benefit of broadcasting a video on the web is theoretically multiplied by two every two years.
Many startups were built by anticipating their business plan according to Moore’s law. This is the case of YouTube (startup having opened in 2005, bought a year and a half later by Google): the price of selling advertising space associated with videos remains the same, but the cost of storage of each video is divided by two every two years, i.e. inexorably tends towards zero. Thus the profit can only grow, for an equivalent audience. But as Moore’s law also increases the capabilities of artificial intelligence, and therefore of better advertising targeting, the benefit, through cross synergies, can increase even more.
The knowledge of Moore’s law and its stakes allows you to be aware of rapid changes and to “connect” to them more quickly, because you are no longer surprised, you expected them.
Moore’s Law also allows you to anticipate tomorrow’s methodological and economic models in the design of your projects. Think “tomorrow’s technical capabilities” when designing your projects.
In short, Moore’s Law doesn’t allow you to predict the future, but almost!